2012 is just around corner
It’s still nearly two years to the next presidential election, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t time to start pondering the horse race. In fact, it was in January of 2007 when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both announced their candidacies.
President Obama is already gearing up for his re-election bid, putting together a team led by David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs. At this time, Secretary of State Clinton is also remaining loyal to her boss, but there is still plenty of time for her to jump in the race if she sees an opportunity.
Meanwhile, most of the attention is focused on the large and unfocused field of candidates on the Republican side.
There was a busy field of Republican contenders the last time around, too — you remember, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and all those guys — but the GOP stuck with its sort of ingrained tradition of awarding the nomination to a seasoned, previous top contender — John McCain.
This time around, there’s some supposed front runners, but there’s no telling who else might jump into the race, and there’s no certainty in favoring front runners, partly because of some recent rule changes for the Republican primary election.
Simply put, these changes will make it harder for a candidate to lock down an early lead in the race, making it even more unpredictable than usual.
The first elections will still be held in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, but they have been moved to February, and no other states will be allowed to hold their GOP primaries before February.
Furthermore, states that hold their primaries in March must award delegates proportionately, a significant change from the winner-take-all primaries that are allowed in the months after March.
So, that may make the race inviting for a variety of dark horses. Romney and Huckabee are getting a lot of front-runner chatter, as is former VP candidate Sarah Palin. But there are a slew of other potential contenders who have not tipped their hand just yet. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are all said to be in position as potential candidates.
The latest speculation is that Giuliani may be back in the hunt, too, and certainly we’ve overlooked other possible candidates. One dark horse popular among political wonks is Mitch Daniels, governor of Indiana, whom The Economist magazine praised as “just the kind of man to relish fixing a broken state — or country.”
None of the above have sent signals of a certain presidential run, but if they intend to, it’ll be coming out soon just to be competitive in a tilt that will carry on halfway into next year. The protracted battle may wear down Americans, but at least this might be the most interesting, unpredictable Republican primary season in decades.